9 Policy and Resources Strategy: revenue monitoring report, including treasury management 2022-23
To note the forecast revenue outturn position, including treasury management
The report had not been circulated five clear days in advance of the meeting. The chair agreed to accept this item as urgent as presenting the report to cabinet on 17 January 2023 gave the opportunity for debate on the forecast outturn for 2022-23 prior to presentation of the draft budget for 2023-24, which is also on this agenda.
That the following be noted:
1. The adverse variance forecast for the general fund in 2022-23.
2. That the forecast has worsened since the month 4 monitor was published in September 2022.
3. That no additional COVID-19 funding has been made available to councils in 2022-23 and that all ongoing expenditure has been included within the forecast.
4. The key adverse variations and budget pressures:
(i) The dedicated schools grant (DSG) is forecasting an in-year pressure of £3m, in addition to the £21.7m accumulated deficit brought forward
(ii) The continuing budget pressures within children’s social care
(iii) The emerging budget pressures in adult social care, mitigated by the use of resilience reserves
(iv) The continuing budget pressures on temporary accommodation
(v) Pay and contractual inflation across all services.
5. The ongoing inclement macro-economic environment, with inflation running at 10.7% in November and interest rates at their highest since 2008.
6. The final pay settlement was agreed in October, with an average impact across the organisation of 5.95% (the fixed sum award means the actual % varies by grade and spinal point).
7. That the un-budgeted element of the pay settlement has an adverse impact on the budget forecast of approximately £6.1m.
8. The housing revenue account forecast for 2022-23 (Table 2, paragraphs 68-77 of the report).
9. Treasury management activity undertaken in 2022-23 (paragraphs 81-88 of the report).
That the following be approved:
10. The interdepartmental budget movements that exceed £250k, as shown in Appendix A of the report (noting those under this threshold).